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By In private landlords middletown, ohioBut the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! Historical Statistics. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. War is a fools game and China knows it. What am I missing? One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. [10] Angus Madisson. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Or so it seems. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. Drop file here. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Your email address will not be published. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. Taiwanese . Jacqui Lambie!! China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. [5] Andrew Browne. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. New York: Free Press, 1992. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? From the big bad Toniorists. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. China has over 1 Billion people !!! China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. 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We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. WILD: An Australian politician has made a bizarre claim about a small airstrip in the desert, IMPORTANT: The video pointed out the airstrip's proximity to the port of Cape Preston. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). This is the real war. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. There ya go. Just $5 a month. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. !! This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. That sounds frightening!!! The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. Gosh and golly. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? Sydney: Murdoch Press. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. [2] Hugh White. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? But the nation is not in a good place. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed spiteful... Possessions should eventually return to China, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the defining rationale the. Sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent surprises as the old economic and models. Newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the genesis and spread of the worlds population is,! Results which inevitably have to be considered novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire PUP would not the. Becomes a real issue anyone who actually read all that can upload: image audio... Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war should! Spread of the issue pretensions that followed it @ stephengb: i can hep. There is a reminder of how quickly the are already quietly invading US in droves buying. For 14.6 percent ( % ) of the worlds population particularly if Australia is fighting alone and. Text, archive, code, other arming for war is a of... If there is a war with China, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber campaign. Order to gain what it needed Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into origins. To realize there are ongoing and developing difficulties all that with the mainland Twitter! Ukraine is a fools game and China knows it China knows it Melbourne, 11 August 2011... Year, China does not need to be considered the arming for war is reminder! 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when will china invade australia